Born to play… or not? Relative age bias and its €2 billion cost in top 5 European football leagues

Abstract

This study examines the persistence and economic implications of the Relative Age Effect (RAE) in elite men’s football. Using data from 2,580 players across the top five European leagues (Premier League, LALIGA, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1) in the 2023/24 season, the analysis confirms that RAE remains statistically significant in all competitions. Players born in the first half of the year are consistently overrepresented, regardless of club ownership structure. A novel contribution of the study is the estimation of the economic value associated with this bias, quantified at approximately €2.04 billion by comparing expected and actual distributions of birth dates combined with market valuations.