Analysis of the Approaches for the Modelling of Sea-level Rise due to Climate Change: Galician Coast (Spain)

Abstract

Climate change modifies climate patterns such as: increase of temperature, change of storms frequency, sea level rise, etc. The change of patterns in seas and oceans has consequences in the development of coastal areas. Forecasts of Sea Level Rise (SLR) are not optimistic in the future, according to the latest reports of prestige international organizations like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). SLR can be assessed as a risk that results from the interaction of hazardous trends with the vulnerability and the exposure of coastal enviroments. This research has created a methodology based on the evaluation of hazard, through the development of two different models. The first one consists of a static model based on the “Bathtub Method”. The second model consists of the application of a validated wave propagation Numerical Model in the area, including metocean aspects. Both models have been applied in the Ría de Vigo, located in the northwest of Spain, specifically in the Galician coast. Evaluation of the SLR hazard in the Ría de Vigo has been determined considering both models previously mentioned, in two different scales, one more global and another more local. The results of both models have been compared, finally exposing their main advantages and disadvantages.