Reevaluating tourism econometrics: insights of gravity models from small island destinations

Abstract

This study investigates the effectiveness of gravity models in predicting tourist arrivals in small island destinations. The purpose of this study is to determine the applicability of gravity models to the case of small island destinations. The reasoning beyond this goal can be justified because these models were not designed to be used to predict tourist arrivals and due to the particularities of small island destinations. Using linear regression analysis, the author examined the significance of two key gravity model variables: economic size and distance, across 33 small islands. The results revealed that neither economic size nor distance were significant predictors of tourist arrivals on small islands. These findings underscore the unique challenges faced by small island destinations, which often defy the conventional assumptions of gravity models[…]