From Frozen to Latent Conflicts. Is a New EU Paradigm for Bosnia and Herzegovina Urgent?

Abstract

Three decades have passed since the beginning of the war, which ravaged Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), and the state finds itself once again in the quagmire of partitioning. In terms of high diplomacy, it is described as the worst crisis since the signing of the Dayton Peace Agreement (1995), which still needs to be consolidated and fully legitimised. The international document that stopped the bloodshed and, at the same time, plunged the state into a tortuous citizenship abyss made of political contradictions, together with an institutional framework instrumentalised as a fertile ground for stabilitocracy and geostrategic influence games. The war in Ukraine has revived the international community’s interest in BiH, forcing it to take firmer stances. This article aims to analyse the recent events in BiH and the European Union (EU)’s strategy in light of its complex relationship based on coherence and inconsistency and the idea of security. The research questions whether the EU will take advantage of the lessons learned in the bloody nineties to resolve frozen conflicts. Answers are provided through an argumentative research design comprising a qualitative analysis of the institutional structure of BiH and the review of the interrelationships between the state and the triggers of local, regional and international instability with a special focus on the EU. The Ukraine scenario shows how quickly frozen conflicts start burning.